Iceland: Planning: Auroras

Why Iceland?

It started with my wanting to cross off the #1 item from my bucket list: Auroras. So I started researching on best places to see the Northern Lights. Being in the west coast of the US, my first attempt was Alaska. Unfortunately, the weather and the solar activity at the time did not cooperate. It was raining the night I was at Fairbanks, the northernmost major city in Alaska.  The nights when it was clear, I was down south at Seward. The solar activity wasn't active enough for any light shows down south. Each night, I was refreshing the Alaska aurora forecast website (http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Alaska/), only to be disappointed by Kp-index of 0 to 1. So my first attempt was a bummer.

I knew I had to find a destination that lies right smack in the middle of the auroral oval, and to go when solar activity is high. And so I turned my attention towards the Nordic countries. Iceland, Finland and Norway were all excellent candidates. After some researching, I came across this blog:

https://earthincolors.wordpress.com/2013/09/19/tips-to-see-the-northern-lights-in-iceland/#iceland

It was very well researched and persuasive that the blog sealed the deal for me. Iceland it is!

Here are my reasons (mostly the same as from the blog) for choosing Iceland:

• Reykjavik, the capital city, is right smack in the auroral oval. The major cities in the other Nordic countries are slightly below the auroral oval. The best spot in the Scandinavian peninsula is the Lapland, which requires some further traveling. With Iceland, you can fly right into the airport, and just step outside and enjoy the aurora. 
• Iceland is not as cold. Fall and winter in Iceland is mild compared to the Scandinavian mainland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. In September, the lows are in 40s while in January, the lows are in the high 20s, which is bearable. So yes, it is on average, colder in Chicago in winter.
• Breathtaking landscapes! Auroras are not the only attraction in Iceland. I've always been a fan of tundra landscapes: vast open grasslands, snow capped mountains and majestic glaciers. Iceland has them all.  Watching recent movies like Prometheus, Oblivion and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty further increased my love for the Icelandic scenery.

Aurora Research

I have always wanted to see the auroras since I was a child. After coming to the US, I have been following aurora forecast news, with hopes for any spike in solar activity that might cause the auroal oval to spill into continental US. So I knew a thing or two about auroras before my Iceland research. But for first timers, I highly recommend going over the same blog I mentioned earlier:

https://earthincolors.wordpress.com/2013/09/19/tips-to-see-the-northern-lights-in-iceland/

To know what to expect/when to go aurora hunting, following items are crucial:

Weather Forecast

It could be a Kp-7 geomagnetic storm out there, producing crazy intense auroras. But if it's raining/cloudy, you won't see anything. So it's very important to pay attention to the weather, even more so in Iceland. The weather in Iceland is extremely fickle. It could be raining at one place, and clear just 2 hours drive away. This is where the Icelandic Met Office comes into the picture:

Icelandic Met Office English website: http://en.vedur.is/


The most important page is of course, the cloud cover:
http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/cloudcover/

Icelandic Met Office Cloud Cover forecast page. In this example, the west coast of Iceland (including the capital, Reykjavik) is mostly cloudy.

It has a very impressively detailed map of the cloud cover. I relied heavily on this page to hunt for clear skies. If you have a flexible schedule, you can plan ahead to be at areas where it's clear.

Aurora Forecast

Some important concepts to know about auroras:

Solar Cycle: In brief, our Sun goes through cycles of activity roughly every 11 years. Right now (2015), we are at the end of the solar maximum phase, the phase where the Sun is most active, which translates to frequent strong aurora displays.  After 2015, aurora activity should gradually decrease. So to maximize the chance of seeing auroras, you should time the trip around solar maximum.The next solar maximum is about 10 years from now (~2024 ish).

Equinoxes: For some reason, auroras tend to be more frequent during the Equinoxes, which fall on March and September. In Iceland, September is preferred to March due to warmer temperatures, no ground level snow/ice and much greener vegetation.

Sunspots/Solar Flares/CMEs: Sunspots are black spots on the surface of the Sun that usually implies solar activity. The larger the sunspot is, the higher the chance of triggering powerful solar flares/Coronal Mass Ejections. A large sunspot can be the size of several Earths. Solar flares are explosions in the sun, that will trigger geomagnetic storms on Earth. Solar flares are rated by class, commonly M-class and X-class. X-class solar flares are the most powerful type. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are stuffs that get flung out from the Sun every once in a while (more so during solar maximum). If the ejection happens to be directed at us, it will most likely trigger very strong aurora displays.

So to summarize: Bigger sunspots -> Higher chances of powerful Solar Flares -> Higher chances of CMEs -> AWESOME AURORAS!

Sunspots, solar flares and CMEs are heavily tracked in aurora forecast websites. Things get exciting whenever there's a huge sunspot aimed directly at Earth.

The monster sunspot AR2192 of 2014, compared to the size of the Earth (top right). Photo shared on SpaceWeather.com by the Langkawi Observatory from Malaysia.

X-class solar flare. Picture from NASA.

Kp-index: This is a scale that measures how intense a geomagnetic storm is. It ranges from 0 to 9. The higher the number, the more intense the aurora display will be.

Aurora Forecast websites: I rely heavily on the following websites for aurora forecasts:

• Space Weather (http://spaceweather.com/): I use this website for major announcements of geomagnetic storms and user submitted pictures.
• Solarham (http://www.solarham.net/): This site has all the graphs and solar imagery that you need to understand the current solar activity. Kp-index, X-ray graph, OVATION map, Sunspot tracking, you name it.
• NOAA aurora forecast: (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast): This is my go to map-based forecast model of the current aurora activity.

Aurora Forecast Map

Summary

So before heading out to hunt for auroras, I would head online (having internet access is crucial here) to check for:

• Where it's clear (Icelandic Met Office website)
• Current solar activity (Solarham or NOAA aurora website)

Armed with all these information, I can set my expectations accordingly, and know when and where to be to get a great show.